Lehigh University researchers'
framework tracks the ecological drivers of bat migration patterns to predict
the next Ebola outbreak
Date: May 22, 2018
Source: Lehigh University
Javier Buceta, associate
professor of bioengineering, Paolo Bocchini, associate professor of civil and
environmental engineering, and postdoctoral student Graziano Fiorillo of Lehigh
University have created a modeling framework that takes a zoonotic perspective
on Ebola.
The team's approach works by
tracking the migratory patterns of bats, which are believed to be a main
carrier of the Ebola virus. Bats, in this instance, are the reservoirs of
Ebola. This means that they are carriers and transmitters of the virus, though
it does not cause them harm.
"In our model, the
appearance of outbreaks is tightly linked to fluctuations in environmental
conditions which have an impact on both bat migration patterns and infection
rates," says Buceta.
Buceta, Bocchini and Fiorillo
worked with satellite information and parameter sampling techniques to create
their framework, which integrates data and modeling to predict the conditions
linking bats' behavior with the outbreak of Ebola. They have detailed their
work in a paper titled "A Predictive Spatial Distribution Framework for
Filovirus-Infected Bats" published online today in Scientific
Reports.
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