Climatic
Change Page 1-13
First
Published Online—11/23/18
Authors-
Daniel Zacarias 1,2,3,4,
Rafael Loyola
3,5
1-
Programa de Pós-graduação em Ecologia e EvoluçãoUniversidade Federal de
GoiásGoiás Brazil
2-
Programa de Pós-graduação Ciência para o DesenvolvimentoInstituto Gulbenkian de
CiênciasOeiras Portugal
3-
Laboratório de Biogeografia da Conservação, Departamento de
EcologiaUniversidade Federal de GoiásGoiás Brazil
4- Escola
Superior de Hotelaria e Turismo de InhambaneUniversidade Eduardo
MondlaneInhambane Mozambique
5-
Brazilian Research Network on Global Climate Change – Rede ClimaSão Paulo
Brazil
Abstract
This
paper aims to understand the impacts of global climate change (GCC) on the
distribution of dangerous venomous snakes and snakebite risk in Mozambique, as a
contribution to the enhancement of public health policies and snake
conservation.
We
modelled current and future distribution of all 13 dangerous snakes occurring
in Mozambique using ecological niche models to assess the likely impacts of
climate change estimated as the difference between lost and gained climatic
suitable area per species. In addition, we developed a normalized index of
snakebite risk based on species diversity and species-specific traits for each
time slice. We then superimposed our index to data on human population density
to identify areas most prone to this burden.
Our
findings suggest considerable future reduction in climatically suitable area
for nine out of 13 species, with species experiencing a north-south range shift
and high rates of species turnover in northern Mozambique. We also found that
GCC might alter the spatial patterns of snakebite risk in the country, with
considerable increase in the future, affecting most areas in central and
southern regions. This finding suggests that GCC will be harmful to venomous
snakes in Mozambique with potentially adverse effects on public health.
As GCC
might induce the approximation of snake climatic suitable areas to highly
populated areas, efforts are needed to increase human knowledge of snakebite
prevention measures and increase awareness of the relative safety and attacking
behaviour associated with some of the snakes studied here ensuring reduction in
snakebites and improving species conservation.
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