Date: January 11, 2019
Source: University of Southern Denmark
What does
the blue whale have in common with the Bengal tiger and the green turtle? They
share the risk of extinction and are classified as endangered species. There
are multiple reasons for species to die out, and climate changes is among the
main reasons.
The risk
of extinction varies from species to species depending on how individuals in
its populations reproduce and how long each animal survives. Understanding the
dynamics of survival and reproduction can support management actions to improve
a specie's chances of surviving.
Mathematical
and statistical models have become powerful tools to help explain these
dynamics. However, the quality of the information we use to construct such
models is crucial to improve our chances of accurately predicting the fate of
populations in nature.
"A
model that over-simplifies survival and reproduction can give the illusion that
a population is thriving when in reality it will go extinct.," says
associate professor Fernando Colchero, author of new paper published
in Ecology Letters.
Colchero's
research focuses on mathematically recreating the population dynamics by better
understanding the species's demography. He works on constructing and exploring
stochastic population models that predict how a certain population (for example
an endangered species) will change over time.
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