A
proposed Northern Serengeti all-weather tarmac road that will bisect Serengeti
National Park, a World Heritage site, has sparked considerable debate.
Opponents say that the road could disrupt the migration of approximately 1.5
million wildebeest, zebras and gazelles between Serengeti National Park and
Masai Mara National Reserve in Kenya, and increase already high levels of
poaching. Proponents, on the other hand, argue that the road will facilitate
national and local economic growth, which in turn will reduce poverty and
improve the local quality of life, which is expected to lower pressure on
ecosystems.
Research
instead of 'Build first—worry later'
The pros
and cons of road projects proposed for remote areas with high biodiversity
conservation value are rarely examined before they are built in the explosion
of road expansion projects that are currently underway in many developing
countries.
Researchers
from University of Copenhagen have used a method called a discrete choice
experiment to determine how road development would
affect local peoples livelihood activity choices in the Serengeti area. A
discrete choice experiment allows researchers to use hypothetical scenarios to
measure the strength of preferences and trade-offs for local people regarding
different livelihood options. The study is published in PLOS ONE.
Contradictory
outcomes
Solomon
Zenas Walelign, one of the authors of the study and postdoc at University of
Copenhagen, says construction of the road could result in one of two
contrasting outcomes.
"One
possible outcome is that increased market integration will allow
intensification of existing crop and livestock production, and the development
of non-farm micro, small and medium enterprises, both of which will reduce
environmental resource extraction. However, a contrasting outcome predicts that
people will expand existing production, which will lead to land conversion and
overgrazing and commercialisation of hunting to meet urban market
demands," Solomon Zenas Walelign says.
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